Rewind: Africa’s coup belt

The Niger takeover is the latest in a string of recent coups in Africa, following those in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad and Sudan

Niger, an impoverished country of some 2.5 crore people, was seen as the last major partner standing against extremism linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that has ravaged the Sahel region. But the July 26 coup, led by General Abdourahmane Tchian overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021 in the first peaceful transfer of power since Niger’s independence from France, has turned the world’s attention to this small West African nation.

Bazoum remains under house arrest with his wife and son in the capital, Niamey. Analysts and locals say the coup was triggered by an internal struggle between Bazoum and Gen Tchiani, who was the head of the presidential guard, and now claims he is in charge. The junta, led by Tchiani, has been shoring up support among people, exploiting grievances toward Niger’s former colonial ruler, France, and silencing opponents.

---

Since its independence in 1960, Niger has experienced five coups. The first four, which could be described as “saving” coups, took place in particular contexts of serious food and socio-political crises, writes Adamou Gado Ramatou in The Conversation.

“During the first coup in 1974 , the Putschists seized power to regain control of the management of a food crisis leaving the populations struggling with acute hunger, then later (1996 , 1999 , 2010 ) to resolve situations of socio-political crisis that paralysed state institutions.

The fifth, on July 26, 2023, is an unusual case in the history of coups d’état in Niger and is akin to an affront to democracy (itself in crisis in Africa due to the bad practices of the elites policies), facilitated by a regional context favourable to coups and the inability of regional and international sanctions to restore constitutional order, as was the case in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso.”

Deadly Extremism

West Africa’s Sahel region has become one of the world’s deadliest regions. The region stretches from the Atlantic Ocean eastward through northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, the great bend of the Niger River in Mali, Burkina Faso, southern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, and into Sudan.

West Africa recorded over 1,800 extremist attacks in the first six months of this year, resulting in nearly 4,600 deaths. Most of those deaths occurred in Burkina Faso and Mali, while just 77 occurred in Niger, said Omar Touray, the president of the ECOWAS Commission, the executive arm of the West African economic bloc. Observers have warned that the extremist threat is also expanding south toward states like Ghana and Ivory Coast.

The coup in Niger brings yet more insecurity. “We are witnessing that the whole belt south of the Sahara is becoming an extremely problematic area,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

Niger — isn’t to be confused with Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country — is one of the world’s poorest countries, struggling with climate change along with migrants from across West Africa trying to make their way across the Sahara en route toward Europe. It has received millions of euros of investment from the European Union in its efforts to curb migration via smugglers.

It has also been a base of international military operations for years as Islamic extremists have greatly expanded their reach in the Sahel. Those include Boko Haram in neighbouring Nigeria and Chad, but the more immediate threat comes from growing activity in Niger’s border areas with Mali and Burkina Faso from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and the al-Qaida affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, known as JNIM.

Other African countries currently caught in conflicts include South Sudan, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, Mozambique and Nigeria.

French Connection

Despite the freedom from France, the French colonial rule established political systems designed to extract valuable resources. Military junta now opposes it and wants to rid itself of any influence from France. France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and together with other European partners had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up its military. Foreign aid worth $2.2 billion makes up 40%  of Niger’s budget.

Will Niger pivot and engage the Russian private military Wagner, which is seeing an opportunity in this crisis as a counterterrorism partner like its neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso, which have kicked out French forces? France had shifted more than 1,000 personnel to Niger after pulling out of Mali last year. Significantly, during the Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg in July, leaders from Burkina Faso and Mali declared their support for President Vladimir Putin and the invasion of Ukraine.

The military coup has triggered widespread international condemnation but the National Council for the Safeguard of Homeland cites the deteriorating security situation in the country for stripping Bazoum of power. “We can no longer continue with the same strategies proposed thus far as we risk observing the gradual and inevitable downfall of our nation,” says General Tchiani, who has declared himself head of National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. Bazoum has refused to step down.

Guarded ECOWAS

Eleven West African nations have agreed to commit troops to a military deployment aimed at reinstating Bazoum. “We are ready to go anytime the order is given,” said ECOWAS commissioner for peace and security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, in the Ghana capital, Accra, following two days of meetings of defence chiefs last Friday.

The ECOWAS bloc previously announced its intention to deploy a force to reinstate Bazoum but had not detailed which countries would join, nor has it said when the force might enter Niger.

The Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS is a 15-member regional group formed in 1975 to “promote cooperation and integration” among its members in the form of an economic union. Over the years, it has expanded its remit to include security. However, ECOWAS has a poor track record in stemming the region’s rampant coups: neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali have each had two within three years.

The 11 countries don’t include Niger itself and the bloc’s three other countries under military rule following coups: Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso. The latter two have warned they would consider any intervention in Niger an act of war.

“ECOWAS has few good options… particularly as the (junta) seems unwilling for the moment to cede to outside pressure,” said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow with the Clingendael Institute, a think tank based in the Netherlands. “An intervention could backfire and damage the organisation in numerous ways, while a failure to extract major concessions from the (junta) could weaken the organisation politically at an already fragile time,” he said.

When embattled Nigerian president Bola Tinubu was elected president of ECOWAS on July 10, he claimed that the organisation would no longer be a “toothless bulldog”.

“We must stand firm in democracy. There is no governance, freedom or rule of law without democracy. We will no longer accept one coup after another in West Africa. Democracy is very difficult to manage, but it is the best form of government”. However, in less than a month, Bazoum was overthrown by his own palace guard.

International Interest  

Africa has almost one-third of the world’s mineral reserves. The continent is rich in gold, diamonds, platinum, uranium, cobalt and chromium.  Because of its strategic location in West Africa and the mineral wealth, Niger has become a pawn in the power struggle between superpowers.

The United States in early 2021 said it had provided Niger with over $500 million in military assistance and training programmes since 2012, one of the largest such support programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The European Union earlier this year launched a 27 million-euro ($30 million) military training mission in Niger. The US has operated drones out of a base it constructed in Niger’s remote north as part of counterterrorism efforts in Sahel.

Russia despite not showing any outwardly support so far, appeared to be supporting the military junta in Niger. Russian flags at the coup supporters’ gatherings raise suspicions of the Wagner group’s presence in the region.  Burkina Faso and Mali too support the Niger military junta. If instability in Niger persists, it may create conditions conducive to a more significant influx of Russian mercenaries.

Niger also plays a critical role in fulfilling Europe’s energy needs especially France. Niger is the seventh largest producer of uranium globally with an output of 2,248 tonnes, a resource that France has heavily relied upon for decades.

China’s Challenge

China so far has not directly evinced any interest in the happenings but it has too much at stake in the shape of Niger Benin pipeline, the longest pipeline in Africa being built at a cost of $6 billion by the West African Oil Pipeline Company (WAPCo), a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Corporation. The projected length of the pipeline is nearly 2,000 km, including 1,250 km of pipeline in Niger itself. This project is seen as an economic lifeline for Niger.

Uncertainty will also hit the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. Since 2000, China has been aggressively investing in Niger. At the China-Niger Investment Forum held in Niamey in April, it was mentioned that Beijing would be willing to build an industrial park to develop agricultural products, manufacturing, mining and real estate. Chinese investors are also involved in lithium mining in Mali and the fishing industry in Mauritania. The China National Petroleum Company is also a major investor in Chad’s petroleum sector.

The ECOWAS has imposed severe sanctions including border closures and suspension of all financial and commercial ties with Niger. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) also cancelled a planned 30-billion-CFA-franc ($51 million) bond issuance by Niger.

Deputy secretary general of Bazoum’s Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism Boubacar Sabo said: “What is happening in Niger, if it succeeds, is the end of democracy in Africa. It’s over. … If we fight today, it is to prevent these kind of things from happening and to ensure a future for our continent.”

According to analysts, the longer the coup drags on, the less likely an intervention will occur as the junta cements its grip on power, likely forcing the international community to accept the status quo. If the current developments are any indication, the crisis can easily overshadow the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason many of the powerful countries are directly or indirectly involved in the evolving situation in Niger.

With inputs from AP

Blurbs

• The July 26 events in Niger follow two coups each in neighbouring Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), and Burkina Faso (January and September 2022) and another in nearby Guinea (September 2021)
• In 2022, Niger faced an unprecedented food crisis, with an estimated 4.4 million people out of the total population of 26 million facing acute food insecurity
• Sahel region comprises portions of 10 African countries – Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan and Eritrea
• The Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel) was founded in 2014 as a regional, intergovernmental organisation. It provides an institutional framework to promote development and security within its five member countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger
• Niger is surrounded by Algeria, Libya, Chad, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Benin and Mali
• The leader of Sudan in the eastern Sahel was overthrown in 2021, the same year Chad’s military replaced its late president with his son, an army general
• West Africa recorded over 1,800 terrorist attacks in the first six months of the year resulting in nearly 4,600 deaths
• Africa became the region hardest hit by terrorism in the first half of 2021 as the Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates spread their influence, say UN experts
• Within the last three years, 11 coup attempts have taken place in Africa, seven of them successful in seizing power